Updated on Monday 18 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
US 89562 (+808) 1486757 (+18937) 272265 (+3889) 1124930 (+14240)
United Kingdom 34716 (+170) 244995 (+3534) 1058 (+0) 209221 (+3364)
Italy 31908 (+145) 225435 (+675) 125176 (+2366) 68351 (-1836)
France 28111 (+579) 179693 (+63) 61327 (+765) 90255 (-1281)
Spain 27563 (+0) 230698 (+0) 146446 (+0) 56689 (+0)
Brazil 16118 (+456) 241080 (+7569) 94122 (+4450) 130840 (+2663)
Belgium 9052 (+47) 55280 (+291) 14630 (+170) 31598 (+74)
Germany 7962 (+24) 176369 (+617) 154011 (+1411) 14396 (-818)
Iran 6988 (+51) 120198 (+1806) 94464 (+1317) 18746 (+438)
Canada 5903 (+103) 78332 (+1126) 38563 (+731) 33866 (+292)
Netherlands 5699 (+10) 44195 (+125) 167 (+0) 38329 (+115)
Mexico 5177 (+132) 49219 (+2075) 33329 (+1481) 10713 (+462)
China 4638 (+0) 84054 (+10) 79306 (+13) 110 (-3)
Turkey 4140 (+44) 149435 (+1368) 109962 (+1825) 35333 (-501)
Sweden 3679 (+5) 30143 (+466) 4971 (+0) 21493 (+461)
India 3025 (+154) 95698 (+5050) 36795 (+2571) 55878 (+2325)
Ecuador 2736 (+48) 33182 (+419) 3433 (+0) 27013 (+371)
Peru 2648 (+125) 92273 (+3732) 28621 (+349) 61004 (+3258)
Russia 2631 (+94) 281752 (+9709) 67373 (+4207) 211748 (+5408)
Switzerland 1881 (+2) 30587 (+15) 27500 (+100) 1206 (-87)
Ireland 1543 (+10) 24112 (+64) 19470 (+0) 3099 (+54)
Portugal 1218 (+15) 29036 (+226) 4636 (+814) 23182 (-603)
Indonesia 1148 (+59) 17514 (+489) 4129 (+218) 12237 (+212)
Romania 1107 (+13) 16871 (+167) 9890 (+316) 5874 (-162)
Poland 925 (+10) 18529 (+272) 7451 (+276) 10153 (-14)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 310547 (+3404) 4629566 (+79542) 1654657 (+40753)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 311961 ( +3290) 4661281 ( +69621) 1675663 ( +37588)
Tue 19 May 2020 315045 ( +3084) 4727969 ( +66688) 1711720 ( +36057)
Wed 20 May 2020 317928 ( +2883) 4791644 ( +63675) 1746170 ( +34450)
Thu 21 May 2020 320615 ( +2687) 4852258 ( +60614) 1778959 ( +32789)
Fri 22 May 2020 323114 ( +2498) 4909790 ( +57532) 1810054 ( +31095)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 4638 (+0) 84054 (+10) 79306 (+13)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 4622 ( +0) 84042 ( +2) 78035 ( +0)
Tue 19 May 2020 4622 ( +0) 84043 ( +1) 78035 ( +0)
Wed 20 May 2020 4622 ( +0) 84044 ( +1) 78036 ( +0)
Thu 21 May 2020 4622 ( +0) 84045 ( +1) 78036 ( +0)
Fri 22 May 2020 4622 ( +0) 84046 ( +1) 78036 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 27563 (+0) 230698 (+0) 146446 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 27398 ( +60) 228241 ( +99) 142111 ( +709)
Tue 19 May 2020 27452 ( +54) 228322 ( +81) 142760 ( +649)
Wed 20 May 2020 27500 ( +48) 228389 ( +67) 143353 ( +593)
Thu 21 May 2020 27543 ( +43) 228445 ( +56) 143894 ( +542)
Fri 22 May 2020 27581 ( +39) 228494 ( +48) 144389 ( +494)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 31908 (+145) 225435 (+675) 125176 (+2366)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 31588 ( +85) 223984 ( +413) 124477 ( +2199)
Tue 19 May 2020 31665 ( +77) 224359 ( +375) 126596 ( +2119)
Wed 20 May 2020 31735 ( +70) 224699 ( +341) 128635 ( +2039)
Thu 21 May 2020 31799 ( +64) 225009 ( +309) 130592 ( +1958)
Fri 22 May 2020 31857 ( +58) 225289 ( +280) 132469 ( +1877)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 34716 (+170) 244995 (+3534) 1058 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 34564 ( +207) 237046 ( +1613) 1343 ( +47)
Tue 19 May 2020 34751 ( +187) 238531 ( +1484) 1392 ( +48)
Wed 20 May 2020 34920 ( +169) 239895 ( +1364) 1442 ( +50)
Thu 21 May 2020 35071 ( +151) 241147 ( +1252) 1493 ( +52)
Fri 22 May 2020 35207 ( +136) 242295 ( +1148) 1547 ( +54)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 89562 (+808) 1486757 (+18937) 272265 (+3889)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 89484 ( +1010) 1478396 ( +13479) 272308 ( +5197)
Tue 19 May 2020 90447 ( +963) 1490833 ( +12437) 277211 ( +4903)
Wed 20 May 2020 91365 ( +918) 1502280 ( +11447) 281825 ( +4614)
Thu 21 May 2020 92240 ( +875) 1512791 ( +10512) 286156 ( +4331)
Fri 22 May 2020 93073 ( +833) 1522424 ( +9633) 290212 ( +4056)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 28111 (+579) 179693 (+63) 61327 (+765)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 27621 ( +80) 178035 ( +112) 60624 ( +308)
Tue 19 May 2020 27693 ( +72) 178133 ( +98) 60903 ( +279)
Wed 20 May 2020 27757 ( +64) 178219 ( +86) 61156 ( +253)
Thu 21 May 2020 27815 ( +58) 178294 ( +75) 61384 ( +228)
Fri 22 May 2020 27867 ( +52) 178359 ( +66) 61590 ( +206)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 7962 (+24) 176369 (+617) 154011 (+1411)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 7940 ( +26) 168707 ( +61) 153610 ( +881)
Tue 19 May 2020 7963 ( +23) 168761 ( +54) 154432 ( +823)
Wed 20 May 2020 7983 ( +20) 168808 ( +47) 155200 ( +767)
Thu 21 May 2020 8001 ( +18) 168849 ( +41) 155915 ( +716)
Fri 22 May 2020 8017 ( +16) 168886 ( +36) 156583 ( +667)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 5699 (+10) 44195 (+125) 167 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 5665 ( +17) 43582 ( +66) nan ( +nan)
Tue 19 May 2020 5680 ( +15) 43640 ( +59) nan ( +nan)
Wed 20 May 2020 5693 ( +13) 43692 ( +52) nan ( +nan)
Thu 21 May 2020 5705 ( +12) 43739 ( +46) nan ( +nan)
Fri 22 May 2020 5716 ( +10) 43780 ( +41) nan ( +nan)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 9052 (+47) 55280 (+291) 14630 (+170)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 9086 ( +39) 53642 ( +85) 14460 ( +95)
Tue 19 May 2020 9121 ( +35) 53718 ( +76) 14549 ( +90)
Wed 20 May 2020 9153 ( +31) 53785 ( +67) 14634 ( +85)
Thu 21 May 2020 9181 ( +28) 53845 ( +60) 14714 ( +80)
Fri 22 May 2020 9206 ( +25) 53899 ( +54) 14790 ( +75)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 3679 (+5) 30143 (+466) 4971 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 3679 ( +43) 30424 ( +447) 5160 ( +4)
Tue 19 May 2020 3720 ( +41) 30853 ( +429) 5163 ( +2)
Wed 20 May 2020 3759 ( +39) 31264 ( +411) 5164 ( +1)
Thu 21 May 2020 3797 ( +37) 31656 ( +392) 5165 ( +1)
Fri 22 May 2020 3832 ( +36) 32029 ( +373) 5166 ( +1)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 925 (+10) 18529 (+272) 7451 (+276)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 923 ( +11) 18760 ( +288) 7596 ( +220)
Tue 19 May 2020 934 ( +11) 19035 ( +275) 7809 ( +213)
Wed 20 May 2020 945 ( +10) 19298 ( +263) 8015 ( +206)
Thu 21 May 2020 955 ( +10) 19548 ( +250) 8214 ( +199)
Fri 22 May 2020 964 ( +9) 19785 ( +237) 8405 ( +191)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 1881 (+2) 30587 (+15) 27500 (+100)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 1892 ( +4) 30283 ( +8) 27301 ( +60)
Tue 19 May 2020 1896 ( +4) 30290 ( +7) 27354 ( +52)
Wed 20 May 2020 1899 ( +4) 30297 ( +6) 27399 ( +46)
Thu 21 May 2020 1903 ( +3) 30302 ( +6) 27439 ( +40)
Fri 22 May 2020 1906 ( +3) 30307 ( +5) 27474 ( +35)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 16118 (+456) 241080 (+7569) 94122 (+4450)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 16825 ( +701) 252626 ( +12125) 92716 ( +2881)
Tue 19 May 2020 17518 ( +694) 264920 ( +12294) 95484 ( +2768)
Wed 20 May 2020 18202 ( +684) 277344 ( +12424) 98131 ( +2647)
Thu 21 May 2020 18873 ( +671) 289856 ( +12513) 100652 ( +2522)
Fri 22 May 2020 19528 ( +656) 302415 ( +12559) 103045 ( +2393)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 17 May 2020 6988 (+51) 120198 (+1806) 94464 (+1317)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 18 May 2020 6921 ( +25) 122204 ( +1943) 89813 ( +303)
Tue 19 May 2020 6945 ( +24) 124156 ( +1953) 90089 ( +276)
Wed 20 May 2020 6967 ( +22) 126108 ( +1952) 90340 ( +251)
Thu 21 May 2020 6987 ( +20) 128049 ( +1941) 90568 ( +228)
Fri 22 May 2020 7005 ( +19) 129969 ( +1920) 90776 ( +207)

Comparison of different countries

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.